Richmond Council: The Election Poll Predictor Item

York House Gardens

York House Gardens

The time is nigh. Residents of the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames are about to vote. They’re about to have their say on who they want to represent them at York House. They’re about to express their democratic right to decide whose promises and plans they want implemented to make this part of south west London a better place for all. And yet, and yet, it’s still more than that. They’re about to hold their heads up and cry, “Yes! In this glorious borough, in this very Twickenham, in this green and pleasant corner of the greatest city on earth, I voted that person onto the local authority!”

We’ve got to say that apart from plenty of discussion in the comments on our mega-humongous “Twickenham Decides” thread, the campaigning from all sides has seemed, well, a bit half-hearted. And this applies in equal measure to the elections for our beloved would-be MEPs  – whoever they may be – as it does for our local councillors. A couple of leaflets, the occasional stand outside Santander and that’s been our lot. No posters up. No door knocking. No soap box demagoguery. Thank God for that!

But we’re not here to judge the campaign to control LBRuT or even to tell you who to vote for. With polling day imminent, we’re just after really simple predictions. Who will be the Brutes? Who is going to control York House come Friday morning?

And if you need a reminder, the current composition of the Council is:

  • Conservative   29
  • Liberal Democrats   24
  • UKIP (elected as a Conservative)   1
  • Labour   0
  • Other   0

Conservative majority = 4.

18 wards x 3 councillors each = 54 seats.

There, we’ve done the maths for you, now it’s your turn to predict (briefly) how it’s going to pan out.

LINKS:
* The twickerati ‘Twickenham Decides’ mega-commented election special

28 Comments

Filed under Council, Local Issues & News

28 responses to “Richmond Council: The Election Poll Predictor Item

  1. David

    Well, so much for the great UKIP hopes in Riverside! All three candidates propping up even Labour! Close the door on your way out, won’t you?

    • sazzy

      WHat a lot of nasty little trolls you are. “Dangerous” and “loopy”, ? Really? Take a good look at your spiteful attacks – take a good look in the mirror. What horrible little men you are.
      It is very sad for us, democracy and the Riverside, that people still vote along party lines and not for who has done what historically. The rabidly anti-UKIP so called ‘free press’, national and local, and ‘establishment’ we have in this country is a damning indictment of a so called democracy.
      As for comments below, both the tories and LDs approve the massive tower block above the station providing dozens of tiny rabbit hutches for people to live in with no increased infrastructure to support it. And how many office buildings locally are standing empty? Daft.
      As for immigration, if you think the majority of people in this country who have concerns about it are all racist maybe you should just say so. I dont have a racist or facist bone in my body and I find it deeply offensive that anyone would think otherwise without knowing either me, or my colleagues.

    • michelangelo

      Perhaps people stick to “party lines” because they prefer it that way? The people have spoken, and it appears that Borough residents do not want Independents. No Independent candidate has been elected here since the Borough was formed.
      However, a much more fundamental point than who has won and who has lost is the turnout. I think this hovered about the 50% mark. The Council (of whatever makeup) takes your money and spends it the way it thinks fit, yet half the population doesn’t seem to care; and yet they feel free to whinge afterwards.
      What is the solution?

    • Edward

      Wow that’s a harsh and unnecessarily personal response to my criticism of policy. That’s what such debate shoul be about but unfortunately the hype has missed most of this out. Nasty? Well, I tend to think that policies that advocate loss of maternity leave rights and right to paid leave are rather mean, as is dismantling the NHS. Feel free to come back and defend these policies I you like – but let’s keep it civilised yes?

    • Sarah Meagher

      Not harsh compared to your comments Edward. I wont reply in detail now. Too tired. Been at work all day and only finished radiotherapy in Jan. But i will respond. Count on it.

      Sent from my iPhone

      >

    • sazzy

      My personal response was aimed more towards the incredibly spiteful ‘David’ so if you were offended I apologise. Clearly he has no contemplation of ‘magnanimous in victory’. However your comments on policy are very misleading.
      I am aware of Nigel Farages comments on maternity leave and as much as I would have some concern, I also understand the concerns of small businesses who cannot afford the cost and loss of staff. We must listen to everyone involved and try to be fair to all sides of the arguement. As for yourcomment on the NHS, I am not aware of UKIP plans to dismantle it, I am aware of the following however, showing the coalition has been doing exactly that.
      “It was recently reported that top Liberal Democrat Party donors Sudhir and and his son Bhanu Choudhrie have been arrested for fraud. But it has never been clearly explained just why two Indian business men would give as much as £1.26 million to the party – including a £60,000 donation to Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes. However, all becomes clear when we notice one of the Choudhrie’s main business interests is a company called Alpha Healthcare – which has already benefited and is set to benefit even more from the coalition’s break-up and sell-off of the NHS.
      That’s on top of the fact that one in ten Lib Dem peers in the House of Lords have connections with private healthcare companies which are benefiting from the healthcare sell-off.”

      It is extremely worrying that the ‘metropolitan elite’ continue to blast away at UKIP branding them facist, dangerous, racist etc. We are nothing of the sort. We have had one or two oddballs revealed, but when you compare these to the numbers in the other parties who have fiddled expenses, lied, cheated, gone to prison, been caught in some very disturbing and compromising situations etc etc, we are comparatively angelic.

    • sazzy

      FYI – nationally, with 61 Councils declared, UKIP has gained 86 seats, Lib Dems lost 97 and Tories lost 95. Maybe there is hope for democracy after all.

    • boanerges

      Yes, time to draw a line under it and move on. The UKIP hopefuls could try in another part of the UK, or, as Longfellow put it “.. fold their tents,.. and as silently steal away”

    • sazzy

      We have done more than any of the other candidates and new Riverside ‘Councillors’ and we have a record to prove it. We arent going anywhere.

  2. Edward

    Every local vote for UKIP sends a ‘vote UKIP’ message out nationally. Everyone should make themselves aware of their dangerous and plainly loopy policies, and not be fooled by the cult of Farage. Breaking up the NHS, losing maternity pay, losing the right to paid leave – the tip of the iceberg. Don’t be seduced by their ill-informed views on immigration – UKIP is a wolf in wolf’s clothing.

  3. Edward

    It’s the Tories’ policies at a national level that are bringing about overdevelopment locally. New planning rules mean that offices can be just turned to homes without needing planning permission. As someone alluded to above, that puts extra strain on infrastructure but it also means less places for jobs. Important to understand what’s down to local decision making and what’s not.

  4. Turnout @ 0900 < 3 %. Local election turnout usually = c. 50 %, which is relatively high.

    I agree that Conservative Hold seems probable but I expect some surprises as we have no idea of what UKIP will get where it’s standing, particularly in Riverside, where it‘s fielding three credible candidates and the Lib Dems have campaigned energetically. Nationally UKIP are top amongst those certain to vote.

    Voters will split their votes in unexpected ways. No doubt as last time there will be several split wards. A long long night at the count is the only certainty!

  5. Anonymous

    Generally I vote Lib Dem. In 2010 I voted Tory. I think they’ve mostly done a good job in Twickenham apart from the whole school approval controversy although the station wasn’t great either. So despite some good work in the town, I don’t think I can get over the way that secondary school was pushed through in the manner it was which means I will vote with principles rather than practical considerations in mind.

    I doubt it will affect the overall result. I expect a Conservative Hold in the borough.

    • sweeneyted

      Yes vote Lib Dem, so in 5 years time after endless crass high density developments, we’ll have another schools crisis.

  6. I thought I’d stumbled upon a genius way to decide who to vote for – exclude anyone who actively canvasses me. Sadly underestimated the apathy amongst lbrut politicians! Only the greens have been crossed out so far – bless them!

  7. illiad1

    GET OUT AND VOTE!!!! no one seems to bother last time, that is why it is in such a state…..

    • sweeneyted

      Yes vote for Lib Dems who are committed to massive housing over-development OR vote for the Tories who are committed to massive housing over-development. We have a lot of choice don’t we.

    • sazzy

      Agree, not a lot of choice – maybe try someone new….?
      You cant keep developing housing unless there is area to develop the infrastructure to support it. No one but UKIP seems to recognise that. Sorry didnt mean to be a PPB but!! I am a concerned active local first and a candidate second.

    • sazzy

      Vote yes! For whoever you like. Just please look at what everyone stands for and make up your own minds. So many people dont get this opportunity in the world. If you dont vote you cant complain!

    • sweeneyted

      There is no UKIP candidate in my ward. Despite it being badly affected by over-development and causing a lot of local resentment, no one in UKIP seems to have realised this is prime ‘capture’ territory. This failure to spot an open goal leads one to question the political maturity of the party and it’s commitment to local communities.

  8. Ex-Twickenham Resident

    Just taking a slightly different slant… I predict 40% or less turn out… 60% do not care.

    The ‘do not cares’ win every time!

  9. George

    How about something like:
    Con 27
    LD 26
    UKIP 1

    It could be interesting and it could happen although it’s hard to see UKIP and the Lib Dems working together to try to block Tory plans.

  10. Tories are going to win with a slightly increased position, is my prediction.

  11. Anonymous

    Reading your posting, I realise, after thinking I lived inTwickenham for the last 37 years, that I don’t! I live on the other side of the 316!!! What a pity.

  12. Your clock is several minutes fast. Yr message timed at 1903 reached me before 1900 – I opened it at 1901.